NFL Week 16 betting odds: Patriots and Bills showdown for AFC East title
The NFL season is quickly approaching the finish line, with only two weeks left in the regular season. Week 15 was full of surprising last-minute finishes, a number of shocking upsets, and some impressive performances from around the league. As a whole, the Pro Football Network had an impressive showing Sunday, bringing in nearly eight units of profit. With momentum swinging in our favor, we immediately look to carry it over when analyzing the NFL Week 16 betting odds.
There are a number of major playoff implications that we need to take into consideration this upcoming week. Using the look-ahead lines from the beginning of the week, we can see where the books might have over adjusted or even under adjusted when setting this week’s betting odds.
Pro Football Network’s betting ledger
Week 15 results: +8.5 units
YTD: +28 units
Before taking into account the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints, the team had a successful Week 15. This weekend alone, we are up 8.5 units, bringing our yearly total to nearly 28 units!
Best bet of the week: Our best bet of the weekend would go to Against the Spread co-host Jason Sarney for his two-unit play on Raheem Mostert. Sarney, expecting a strong running attack from the San Francisco 49ers against a terrible Atalanta Falcons defense, needed 52.5 rushing yards — Mostert finished with 54.
Bad beat of the week: This honor goes to Sarney once again, thanks to rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. The Arizona Cardinals had an offensive explosion against the Cleveland Browns, all signs were pointing up for Sarney and his over 224.5 passing yards prop. Unfortunately, the team was up big early on, and milked the clock down the stretch. Murray finished six yards short of his prop.
NFL Week 16 betting odds
There are a surprising number of important matchups down the stretch this season. The two biggest games of the weekend: 1) the Buffalo Bills heading to New England for a chance to shock the world and take the lead in the AFC East, and 2) the Dallas Cowboys heading to Lincoln Financial Stadium to take on the Phildelphia Eagles to decide the winner of the NFC East.
Here is a look at the NFL Week 16 opening lines, with a breakdown of a few that will likely be bringing in quite a bit of wagers this weekend.
Biggest Adjustments from look-ahead
The biggest adjustment of the week goes to the premium matchup of the weekend, Buffalo and New England. The original spread for this game at the beginning of the week was New England -13.5. That is a nearly two-touchdown spread. We now see that the Patriots are only a 6.5 point favorite. Does the play of Josh Allen and the Bills defense merit a full touchdown swing?
Another game that has seen a swing through some key numbers is between Arizona and Seattle. The Seahawks were 12 point favorites against the Cardinals at home in the look-ahead market. The number opened this week under the key number of 10 at Seattle -9.5. Seattle is in the middle of a playoff push and the Cardinals just embarrassed the Cleveland Browns. This performance might have had an impact on the opening line, but it is more likely due to the Cardinals having been so competitive in a lot of games this year.
The Dallas Cowboys were originally getting 3.5 points in Philidelphia. The Eagles haven’t played well this year and have been ravaged by injuries. The Cowboys have also been disappointing after a strong playoff run last year. Dallas is now laying a point on the road, in a game that will decide the winner of the NFC East.
Here is a look at the original NFL Week 16 look-ahead lines.
Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)
Opening NFL Week 16 betting odds: New England -6.5, total 38.5
At the beginning of the 2019 season, there weren’t a lot of NFL analysts who expected that this Week 16 matchup could potentially decide the winner of the AFC East. The dominant Patriots have won the AFC East 16 times since 2000. You would have to travel back to 1995 to find the last time the Buffalo Bills were able to hold up the title crown.
This upcoming matchup will not decide who wins the division, but it will be a huge step in that direction. If New England wins, the division is all but theirs. But, if Buffalo somehow finds a way to get the win, both teams will need to play hard in Week 17. The way the NFL playoff system works means that if Buffalo wins their last two games and New England just Week 17, New England would still win the AFC East due to their common opponent records. The Patriots are 3-1 against common opponents.
If quarterback Josh Allen can limit his mistakes against an elite Patriots defense then they might have a shot. Statistically, the Bills might be concerned about this matchup. Since 2004, the Patriots have gone 28-3 straight-up against the Bills, which includes a mark of 18-11-1 ATS. But, if you want to back the Bills you can find solace in the fact that they have covered ATS the last two times they played New England.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is also starting to heat up like he so often does in the month of December. He has found a reliable new connection with rookie standout N’Keal Harry, and their offense has benefited from it. Both of these defenses are in the top five of most important categories and this one might simply come down to who wants it more.
Dallas Cowboys (7-7) at the Philidelphia Eagles (7-7)
Opening NFL Week 16 betting odds: Cowboys -1, total 47.5
Both of these teams will be limping to the finish line after somewhat disappointing seasons. They can both thank their lucky stars that the Washington Redskins and New York Giants struggled as much as they did this season, or both could have missed the playoffs. This game will decide who wins the NFC East and ultimately make the playoffs with a potential .500 record.
The Cowboys are coming off of an impressive win at home against the Los Angeles Rams. The offense started putting things together and the defense returned to the elite status they held in 2018. The Rams were a desperate team last week, needing every win to hope for a playoff appearance. Dallas will be playing another desperate team this week.
If you are looking for a reason to jump on the Cowboys, this might be the stat you need. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Cowboys have gone 14-2 both straight-up and ATS against divisional opponents. For all of his downfalls, head coach Jason Garrett has found the formula to beating NFC East opponents.
After a big win against the Washington Redskins, the Eagles will try to carry momentum into this week. The team has struggled against inferior opponents over the past two weeks, but they have found ways to get the wins nonetheless. If they are to be successful here, they will need to find ways to fix their secondary. If not, Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper could be in for some big offensive performances.
Here are the rest of the NFL Week 16 betting odds.
NFL Lines For Week 16
NFL Line 12/21 – 12/23, 2019
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|12/21 8:15 ET||At San Francisco||-6.5||LA Rams||N/A|
|12/21 4:30 ET||At New England||-6.5||Buffalo||38.5|
|12/21 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-1||Houston||53|
|12/22 4:05 ET||At Denver||-6.5||Detroit||37.5|
|12/22 4:05 ET||At LA Chargers||-6.5||Oakland||47|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-6.5||Jacksonville||46|
|12/22 1:00 ET||New Orleans||-1||At Tennessee||51|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Washington||-3||NY Giants||Off|
|12/22 1:00 ET||Pittsburgh||-3||At NY Jets||38.5|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Miami||-3||Cincinnati||45.5|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-6.5||Carolina||46.5|
|12/22 1:00 ET||Baltimore||-7||At Cleveland||49|
|12/22 4:25 ET||Dallas||-1||At Philadelphia||47.5|
|12/22 4:25 ET||At Seattle||-9.5||Arizona||48.5|
|12/22 8:20 ET||Kansas City||-4||At Chicago||45|
Monday Night Football Line
|12/23 8:15 ET||At Minnesota||-4.5||Green Bay||46.5|
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